Jun 14 2012

User Adoption Bubble

It’s clear that we are in a bubble. I am not saying we are in a stock market bubble, even though most tech investors will agree that private valuations are frothy and that this frothiness is caused by the bubble in which we are in, a user adoption bubble. Where it used to take a long time for people to adopt a new technology, now new products and services gain more users faster than ever before. It took decades for traditional telephone companies to get a signification penetration rate, were as mobile carriers already have garnered an estimated 97% penetration rate in the United States. A similar user adoption rate acceleration can now be experienced by startups that execute well, Facebook has a stepper adoption curve than Yahoo did, and Google Plus had a steeper adoption curve still for its number of Daily Active Users. Products that execute well, such as Instagram, can see an adoption rate that is appealing to investors. An increase in user adoption rate, especially at the 1 million to 50 million user accounts, and a decrease in the cost of running a startup has been a key factor to the trends we have seen in Silicon Valley. The formula, as demonstrated by Instagram, is simple; small team + millions of users = a billion dollar valuation.

Even though some social networking related startups have seen user fatigue, I don’t see or expect the user adoption bubble to burst at an industry level any time soon, especially for well startups that consistent execute on user engagement and amazement. At the individual product or service we’ve already seen where companies have faltered, such as the reports that Draw Something has seen a significant drop in daily users.

The user adoption bubble has been brought on by a number of factors including the ubiquity of internet access, growing number of smart devices and inexpensive computers, as well as social engaging techniques such as poking, liking, following, retweeting, pinning, etc.


May 16 2012

Retweet April 2012

From time to time I just blast tweets about software development, project planning, team dynamics, or whatever else comes to mind. Here is a synopsis of recent tweets and rants. If you want to follow the conversation follow me at techknow and/or juixe.

Software Development

  • Too often I’ve seen code that made me lose my lunch.
  • Sometimes source code is like the sausage factory where you don’t want to look what goes into an application.
  • One developer’s corner case is another user’s daily workflow.
  • Application logs are like money, you can always use more… Unfortunately they are like pennies, the more you have the more difficult it is.
  • Fix the problem, not the symptom. Some developers prefer to fix the symptom because they don’t know how to find the root cause itself.

Team Leadership

  • It is important to lead the way and then immediately get out of the way.
  • If it doesn’t make sense to me it is because you are not explaining it correctly.
  • Everyone has a right to their opinions but not everyone’s opinion is right.
  • Great ideas don’t belong to any one person. Great ideas are not unique to anyone. Great ideas stand on their own.
  • If you are safe in your comfort zone you’ll never be in the zone.
  • Even when I think outside the box, I am still in the zone.
  • There are no easy answers without hard choices.
  • It’s one thing to make sense and a completely different thing to be clear.
  • There are some things in life that are not meant for you to understand but to accept.

Product Placement

  • Things Apple should buy: Evernote, app TLD, Square, and my blog.
  • The Notes app on the iPhone badly needs an to support the undo and redo feature.
  • The new Google+ is the new New Coke.
  • If Google would have invented Polaroid, the film would be free but full of ads and a copy would be uploaded to the cloud.
  • Some of Google’s UI often looks and feels like the uncanny valley of design, it has a plastic aspect to it.
  • My other Tumblr is a Moleskine.
  • So much of the content I see in Pinterest seems to come from Tumblr…
  • Instagram has no ads, only available on mobile, Android support just added, not profitable, no web presence… Obviously worth $1 billion.
  • Instead of paying a billion in cash and stock why didn’t Facebook just pay a billion in Facebook Credits and likes.
  • Silicon Valley back of the envelop valuation math: Tumblr + Camera+ > Instagram therefore Tumblr + Camera+ = $10,000,000,000++.
  • I don’t understand @McDonalds economics… A whole McChicken sandwich costs $1 but ask for an extra BBQ sauce and you get charged $0.50.

Silicon Angels

  • Is it possible for the whole of Silicon Valley to jump the shark? If and when it does there will be a large splash.
  • Silicon Valley valuations are relative to previous largest valuation.
  • The Internet is paved with high valuations.
  • Frothyness is the new truthyness.
  • Frothy does a body good.

Randumb

  • I want to see the world in HD.
  • What do we want? Our way. When do we want it. All the time.
  • If someone says something that is factually untrue, it doesn’t mean they lied… It means you lied to yourself by believing it. #truth
  • One persons guest house is a other persons mansion.
  • Some people build walls, others bridges, I build BS radar detection systems.
  • Retweet, reblog, repin, remix, rinse, and repeat!
  • I think in numbers.
  • All language is a metaphor.
  • Trolls shall inherit the earth.

Apr 18 2011

Retweet March 2011

From time to time I just blast tweets about software development, project planning, team dynamics, or whatever else comes to mind. Here is a synopsis of recent tweets and rants. If you want to follow the conversation follow me at techknow and/or juixe and I’ll be sure to follow back.

Software Development

  • Worst than coder’s block is coder’s shiny tech infinite loop.
  • I got 99 problems and a bug ain’t one.
  • I’m a rockstar ninja guru mofo byte code copy editor.
  • If you could Myers-Briggs test your code what type would your code be and what type of developer would that make you?
  • Are you test driven or bug driven development?
  • Spiderman had his spidey sense and I have my buggy sense and it is tingling.
  • Software bugs can byte my shiny metal ass.
  • Code is a continuum.
  • Mo data, mo problems.
  • Let there be APIs.
  • “Hello, World” is a programmer’s first program. Blog engine is a web developer’s first web app. Consultant’s first product, time management application.
  • Duh, #debugging.
  • Code is never complete.
  • Code less, debug less.
  • I’m a bandwagon programmer!
  • This is not the code you are looking for.
  • I break for bugs.
  • My code runs more than you.

Team Dynamics

  • Passion is not a fruit, it’s a seed.
  • Pitch your passion.
  • Self help gurus first help themselves.
  • If you are waiting for tomorrow you will always be waiting.
  • In the evening be exhausted, in the morning exhilarated.
  • Great ideas don’t join country clubs.
  • Inside a large risk is a large reward, you just need to know how to unwrap it and then monetize it.
  • Meetings begets meetings
  • It’s not how the ball is pitched to you, it’s how you hit the ball, duh #winning.
  • Replace “what if” with “when and how.”
  • The way you think of a problem affects the way you think of the solution.
  • Everybody lives in there own bubble, expand yours.

Product Placement

  • I’m confused as to which photo service we are all supposed to use this month, flickr, picasa, twitpic, instangram, picplz, plixi, color, etc
  • Color app seems like Bump for pictures.
  • Why is the director of the FBI emailing my AOL email account from a io domain?
  • 3G forecast: partly spotty with chances of AT&T fail.
  • Out of all of Apple’s products, Jobs’ best revenue generating product must be the iPhone earbuds. At $30, it has $.50 of material.
  • I’ve lost count, would Google Circles be Google’s third or fourth social networking attempt?
  • Outlook should have a Save As option to save as a Word document.
  • What Google giveth Google taketh away with one change in their algo.
  • Ikea has made a killing by selling designer cardboard.

Quotes

  • Standards are paper. I use paper to wipe my butt every day. That’s how much that paper is worth. – Linus Torvalds
  • Seeing companies promote their Facebook fan page in advertisements reminds me of when companies promoted their AOL keyword. – @bencasnocha
  • Every software package expands until it can send email. – Zawinski’s Law
  • One great rock show can change the world. – School of Rock

Questions

  • How many tweets does it take change a light bulb and start trending?
  • Do you live in the moment or in a hurry to get to the next moment?
  • Is #SXSW the equivalent to #Woodstock but for social media experts and tech hipsters?
  • Forget Scientology, what Hollywood religion is Charlie Sheen practicing where he is a warlock and lives with goddesses?
  • If William of Occam worked at Gillette how many blades would Occam’s razor have?
  • Is Chris Brown the next Dennis Rodman?

The Valley

  • There is a “lifestyle business” bubble.
  • To VCs, startup founders are like dogs to be sorted by pedigree.
  • Is it a bubble if you can’t afford to invest in a seed round?
  • Everybody is scared of a little bubble.
  • Forget about building a better mouse trap, think about building a better people trap.
  • Some party like a rock star, I party like a VC.

Technologist

  • Single sign-on is something that should be native in the browser.
  • Love thy neighbors, like thy Facebook friends, and retweet they twitter followers.
  • People like liking.
  • Tell me what smart phone you have and I’ll tell you everything about you, especially of you have it unlocked.
  • Terms of Service do not void your constitutional rights.
  • Love thy neighbors, like thy Facebook friends, and retweet they twitter followers.
  • If there ever is a a zombie attack just remember that the Googleplex has the biggest brains, Hollywood and Washington not so big.

Tweeple

  • Mr. Zuckerberg, tear down this walled garden.
  • Mr. Jobs, fix my iPhone.
  • I think Aaron Sorkin should write a treatment for a movie based on Stuxnet.
  • Jeff Bezos to serialize his brain and store it Amazon’s cloud and allow developers to access it via an API.

Japanese Earthquake

  • My heart goes out to the Fukushima 50 and all the search and rescue workers.
  • I have the same feeling, level of disbelief and sense of magnitude, about Japan now as I did about New York after September 11.
  • Earthquake + Tsunami + Nuclear + Meltdown = (Me Praying for the People of Japan)^8.7
  • Wow, the Japan quake at 8.9 is 700x stronger than the Haiti earthquake.
  • There is no match to the “shock and awe” that Mother Nature can produce in matter of minutes.
  • I <3 Japan
  • Stay strong Japan! If there is any country that can recover from two nuclear bombs, multiple Godzilla attacks, and a 8.9 quake Japan can.